Sale of the Century

It was hardly a shock to hear that Manchester United had accepted an £80 million bid for Cristiano Ronaldo. After two years of batting eyelids at one another the Portuguese winger and Real Madrid are finally set to begin their love affair.

And since Thursday’s news, the headlines have been all too familiar. Who will United replace him with? Can Real challenge Barcelona’s supremacy? And which club will benefit more from the deal?

The first two questions have filled too many column inches already. But for what it’s worth, United will sign the impressive Antonio Valencia from Wigan and Real will take two years to mount a successful challenge to the imperious Barca.

The third question is the one that grabs. Which club will come off better?

Sir Alex has a well documented record of selling marquee players at the perfect time. The ’95 fire sale of Ince, Hughes and Kanchelskis stands up as adequate testimony to this. Whilst Hansen et al bleated about the lunacy of it all, Ferguson ushered in the greatest generation of home grown players in the history of the club.

Add the well-timed sales of Beckham, van Nistelrooy and Veron to the equation and it is clear that Sir Alex has a knack for this. The only major blot on his copy book was the Jaap Stam debacle, a mistake Ferguson openly admits.

The pending sale of Ronaldo will net a profit of £68 million and with the player himself desperate to leave, who could be blamed for believing this to be another Ferguson master-stroke? Only time will tell, but it could all have been very different...

It’s easy to forget that in 2003 Ronaldo was Manchester United’s second choice as a replacement for David Beckham. After a long summer of chasing Ronaldinho, the toothy Brazilian opted for the warmer climes of Barcelona. It was only during a pre-season friendly against Sporting Lisbon that Ferguson found his man. The rest, as they say is history.

Over the next two seasons Ronaldinho became the FIFA World Player of the Year and a Champions League winner, whilst Ronaldo failed to make any mark on the Premier League other than a reputation for style over substance and frequent diving.

However, by 2007 Rijkaard’s Barcelona were struggling and Ronaldinho had become a shadow of the player who graced the Nou Camp a year earlier. With the spotlight on his personal life and his weight gain, there began the quickest decline of a footballing great in recent memory. Meanwhile, in Manchester Ronaldo was transforming unfulfilled promise into scintillating performances, as the star player in United’s march to their first title in four seasons.

Although impossible to know what might have happened if Ronaldinho had joined Man United, the facts speak for themselves. Not signing Ronaldinho is easily the best ‘non-transfer’ in the history of the game.

Financially, Man United would have made a loss on the Brazilian, but more importantly they would have missed out on the massive success that Ronaldo brought the club. Aside from the £68 million profit, his contribution to three consecutive league titles and the 2008 Champions League victory has been nothing short of fundamental.

So as he departs for the Bernabeu, Ronaldo leaves behind a far more compelling question than those currently being trotted out. What will be the best ‘non-transfer’ in European football this summer? With world records broken and new money flooding the market isn’t it more intriguing to ask who will dodge the biggest bullet?

My guess is that whoever fails to sign Franck Ribery will be smiling 12 months from now. This has very little to do with ability, as he proved with Bayern last season that he is an exceptional talent. However, it doesn’t take a shrewd operator like Franz Beckenbauer to work out that there is about to be an all out bidding war for his prized asset.

With Chelsea, Barcelona, both Manchester clubs and Milan already linked with the French winger, his eventual price could exceed £50 million. If Kaka is worth £57 million in the current market, then this is a vastly inflated figure for a man who has never played in Serie A, La Liga or the Premier League.

As the bidding starts, Sir Alex should be canny enough to keep his chequebook tucked firmly in his back pocket. Maybe in four years time we’ll be talking about the player he signed instead.